The number we’ve all become accustomed to regarding the rate at which autism occurs is 1 in 68. The 1 in 68 figure held firm over the span of 4 years from 2010 to 2014. However, the latest report from the CDC (which comes out every two years and observes 8 year old children) shows a 15% increase in prevalence from 2014, and the figure has now moved up to 1 in 59. This, to me, is the most fascinating thing out of all the myriad of subjects I’ve researched regarding autism. What is going on exactly, and why does the amount of people being diagnosed with ASD continue to rise?
The answer almost certainly has to do with a heightened awareness to the condition and improvements in how we diagnose it. With that in mind, I imagine the 1 in 59 will shrink even further by the time I’ve graduated college and moved onto adulthood. However, there is one slight concern I have concerning the rapidly increasing number of diagnoses. As this article discusses, as we trend more towards diagnosing children at a younger age, we risk muddying the waters between genuine autism and other disabilities, or even standard neurodevelopmental setbacks. Once the autism label is applied, the consequences of that will stick with the individual for the rest of their lives.
The last thing I want is for anyone to receive an incorrect diagnosis. Obviously, I’m not a practicing psychologist, and I wouldn’t know the first thing about how to diagnose someone as being on the spectrum, unless they were severely low-functioning. I don’t doubt the ability or credibility of any professional, but I worry we’re becoming somewhat trigger happy with the ASD label. It simply does not seem right to me from a skeptical viewpoint for such rapid changes in such a short time as we see here. Especially considering that autism is not a transmittable disease like the common cold. I couldn’t be happier that preventative measures are better now than ever regarding ASD, but we need to be careful that we don’t start assuming that 1 in 2 or 3 have it.
From what I’ve read, it seems like the 1 in 59 will not be here to stay for very long. As the criteria for diagnosis broadens, and the amount of parents checking their children for ASD grows along with general awareness, I predict that by 2020 we’ll see it somewhere in the ballpark of 1 in 52 or 53. No matter what the prevalence truly is, groups like CARD will always be out there to support them and provide them with any help they need!